28 Feb 2026 10:14:04
Who would have thought 3 months ago, RA would be sacked and we could go 3rd with a win Sunday, funny old season. Still think Arsenal will end up 2nd, l hope not hate to city win it again.

1.) 28 Feb 2026
28 Feb 2026 11:35:15
Think Arsenal will do it, but it will be very tight. Villa's form should be a real concern for them. They could drop out of the top 5 in the next few weeks.

2.) 28 Feb 2026
28 Feb 2026 11:55:17
Villa's underlying numbers have not been great all season. They've been overachieving in terms of goals scored, according to the xG model. They've also had a fair bit of luck when it comes to the xG model suggesting they should have conceded more than they have. What we are seeing now is probably an overachieving team returning to the mean.

3.) 28 Feb 2026
28 Feb 2026 17:42:02
Crazy, though, Redcon. Some on here thought we were overachieving with Amorim.

4.) 01 Mar 2026
01 Mar 2026 00:38:51
We were underachieving our stats with Amorim. The point, Angel, was that those stats are better predictors for long-term performance. You should recall that, in those chats, I pointed Villa out several times as the mirror case of United, i.e., that they were getting results well above what their underlying metrics showed, and that I expected them to come back to the field.

{Ed001's Note - is that really anything to do with xG or simply because their first choice midfield is all currently injured?}

5.) 01 Mar 2026
01 Mar 2026 14:11:42
Villa have gotten similar performance metrics in their recent games. They have ridden their luck this year. That's what the numbers have shown. That there can be another factor doesn't invalidate that. Doing better than xG can happen over a period, but it's an unstable thing to rely on. Liverpool saw that earlier in the season. Villa are seeing it now.