Manchester United discussion 2

01 Jan 2026 21:28:08
There is a lot of chat here about Amorim not showing improvement in the squad. It's an opinion forum of course but too often people are pushing their own preferences rather than evaluating Amorim fairly. Though many of the same also reject xG, that is entirely wrong as it is a better predictor of future performance and fairer reflection of current one (though if results constantly go either for or against it momentum can take over) .
So let's view xG points finishes over past few seasons
2021/22 8th (actual 6th)
2022/23 6th (actual 3rd)
2023/24 15th (actual 8th)
2024/25 12th (actual 15th)
Currently 5th (actual 6th)

We most definitely have improved. Our underlying metrics show that we didn't actually regress last year despite what some on here are spinning.
Our squad is awful. We have bought well last year and this year but probably only have maybe 15 players good enough for upper half side (with maybe 7 or 8 good enough for a CL side) . Against Wolves we were missing 6 of our good players. It should not surprise anyone that we were poor. Many of those players are the same that have shown over 2 seasons they are lower half PL level. And that's generous as Bruno has bailed most of them out.

02 Jan 2026 10:09:00
Question. ) If XG is the probability of an average player scoring from that position, isn't it possible that over performing your XG is a sign of a good team and under performing your xg a sign of a bad team?

02 Jan 2026 11:09:20
I say it again. Xg is entirely subjective. The fact that it rarely if ever tallies with actual reality is evidence enough. It would never be entertained in the business world as it is fraught with inaccuracy.

02 Jan 2026 11:11:27
Sort of. As you say xG represents what an average player would do in that position given the same scenario. Sometimes good teams with poor attackers can create good opportunities but those players not take them. Over performance or underperformance of xG is more a reflection on the execution of that scenario so it's more a retrospective tool to evaluate players.


Nonetheless you can use xG (especially with penalties removed) as a good predictor of future performance. If a teams xG is consistently high that of course indicates they are a good attacking side. And that is a better predictor of future performance than goals.

02 Jan 2026 11:13:36
So high xG is a sign of a good team, low xG is a sign of a bad team. Good teams tend to have players that execute better than bad team, so they'll often outperform their xG. But it isn't predictive. It's more a correlation vs causation argument.

02 Jan 2026 11:31:15
Keefy T you are entirely, and woefully wrong. Businesses also try to use metrics like this all the time as better ways to evaluate their performance. It is not entirely subjective. That is the point.
And it does tally with reality. Goals are a more volatile number than xG (since xG is continuous and goals are not) . You get more information from xG because they capture chance creation etc more.

If they didn't add information do you really think that clubs that use this extensively. Brighton, Brentford, etc are all founded by people who advocate for this massively, but hey fella you seem to know better than Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham so you crack on.

02 Jan 2026 11:48:06
And how about xg against, i. e. the likelihood of us conceding? I'm guessing that's really bad. It doesn't matter how many goals you score if you are also conceding heavily.

02 Jan 2026 11:52:13
2025
12 won
14 lost
11 draws
38% Win rate

What about those stats?

02 Jan 2026 11:58:04
2023/24 we were 15th in xG against i. e. only 5 teams worse
2024/25 13th
Currently 9th

So we're not great but another metric that demonstrates improvement. And also demonstrates what RA inherited was shockingly bad.

02 Jan 2026 12:10:11
What's the point of that angelred? Obviously our results aren't good enough. If you want to be shorttermist that's fine. I'm not saying use only xG and ignore results am I?! Why create a false dichotomy. I'm asking for a fuller and more rounded evaluation. Other that Bruno the metrics show the squad that RA took over was a lower half PL side, possibly one that would have been in relegation trouble without him.

That squares up much more than the 8th place finish in 2023/24 to me. Your point would say we were much better that season than we actually were. Because people in the club also followed that nonsense we didn't start the rebuild for another year.

{Ed001's Note - but you are not using a more rounded evaluation. You have not included any context to the xG. For starters, offensive xG has to analysis who the chances are falling to as well to have any use at all. If you are creating lots of chances, but all falling to a player who couldn't score in a brothel with a fistful of 50s, then it doesn't matter how high a number you get.}

02 Jan 2026 13:18:09
Top analysts use passing chains to give more context for instance into who is contributing best to attacks. I get that not everyone will know or want to know the cutting edge approaches to these metrics but talking about them being useless, lacking context and subjective is so wide of the mark.

02 Jan 2026 13:13:36
Just wrong Ed001. You use it to evaluate players primarily. If a player is underperforming their xG you try figure out why. If the team is underperforming their xG because of the players the chances fall to you use that information to make adjustments. Your point is nonsensical. No good analyst would use xG without context. It's a non sequitur.

{Ed001's Note - but you are talking about it without context. Telling other people they are wrong when you are using it so blatantly wrong is just ridiculous. It is not my point that is nonsensical, it is the way you have posted that is the problem. You completely ignored context, now you are trying to make out it is me that is nonsensical. I won't bother again, don't worry. Pointless talking to someone that will just keep jumping to a completely different viewpoint and pretend it was what they said all along.}

02 Jan 2026 13:56:43
Ed001 what are you on about? I put forward another way of viewing our performances. That in and of itself gives a fuller picture. You jumped in to say I didn't give a more rounded evaluation. Unless you're expecting me to write a 30 page evaluation then your point was nonsensical.

Quite what you're trying to achieve by getting het up I don't know. Perhaps read the thread again. And maybe go for a walk and cool down.

{Ed001's Note - I am not the one getting het up, have you not read your posts. You are getting very angry over anyone questioning you.}

02 Jan 2026 14:01:22
Your point was that an xG analysis without context of which player the chances fall to is useless definitely is wrong. I stand by that. It still gives additional information beyond just the scoreline.

{Ed001's Note - ok mate, you are right, is that what you want to hear? So needy.}

02 Jan 2026 14:14:05
Ok fella. I didn't get angry. I pointed out that taking such a strong opinion as to dismiss additional ways to evaluate performance is nonsense. That's it. Anyway take your higher ground if you like. Hopefully others are more open minded.

{Ed001's Note - yes, I hope they are more open minded than you. You did a very good impression of a tantrum.}

02 Jan 2026 14:36:03
Listen Tris I appreciate you and all you do here. You misinterpreted tone and made a point I disagree with. Don't blow it up to mean any more than that.

02 Jan 2026 15:29:18
You've picked out 1 stat to demonstrate improvement, angel was showing another perspective, as was I. I think everyone can see some progress, but not as much as others would like to make out, and picking one single stat in isolation is pretty pointless.

02 Jan 2026 15:33:17
I come in peace. DonRed i quite agree in most of what you say. But its not exactly like that, constantly underperforming your expected goals is a sign of a bad team. But it doesn't work like that the other way.
No player has the ability to overperform his expected goals constantly, its about form (or luck? ) in a short period in which they overperform only for them to then underperform them and at the end the result is almost tie. For example Cristiano Ronaldo in his time at La Liga had the same goals (bar penalties) as his non penalty expected goals suggested, at the same time Lewantofski (i am sorry for spelling) did the same at Bundesliga. Here we speak theoritically about the 2 best goalscorers in the last 15 years and even them didn't overperformed.

There are exceptions, Son was the one because of the ability to score with his "bad" leg and Messi the other because of the ability to score outside the box-chances who has low expectations but he converted them. They are the two players constantly overperforming their xg worth mentioning, the other i think is Kane but he overperfomed by less margin.
Top teams have a big expected goals difference in common, 2 plus for expected goals and 1 or less for expected goals against, and then overperfoming or underperforming, doesn't matter, you will be there (near the top) . Have a happy new year everyone.

02 Jan 2026 16:16:31
Xgn8s an interesting if unproves metric. Taking a wider view, last season 10 teams conceded fewer goals than us. This season, so far, 13 teams have conceded fewer. We are scoring more, but are worse at the back, conceding more per game than last year.

We have a lot of options going forward, although Sesko needs to come to the party, but are not solid enough at the back. We don't need to score more goals, we need to concede fewer.

Our win rate this year is 42%, last year it was 33% (whole season), so that shows progress.

02 Jan 2026 16:21:40
That was my point AJH. But every time xG is mentioned somebody rocks in to criticise it as if the point is to use it in isolation. That was the tenet of the criticism here too.


Heaven there is a good lot of evidence that good teams outperform xG. Individuals don't do so consistently but good teams have more good players so at a team level it does tend to apply.

02 Jan 2026 17:05:54
I think it's worth extrapolating on the xG for teams. Because it is designed more to evaluate players, events like penalties tend to skew xG higher. But expected goals which are very similar to xG but are more like a rolling average of goals scored are what are actually used to gauge team strengths. This is what is used to give the odds on a team winning a game for instance.

Of course there are corrections for strength of the opposition, if it's a home game and so on. This number is far less variable than goals, and xG tends towards this faster than goals - again because it varies far less. It is not the be all and end all. Because of how volatile goals are (due to how few there are) football is a far more interesting game.

02 Jan 2026 19:04:03
Do Red I agree generally with you. Too teams don't always overperform the expected goals, I think Arsenal this year doesn't and Liverpool last year didn't. City very often does so I guess it's the quality of chances that each team creates. City under Pep usually create high quality chances, we otherwise shoot a lot from difficult angles-Rashford was guilty and Bruno I think always is.
Let's use an example to understand the above. Every chance worldwide averages 0,10 expected goals. A team can make 10 shoots with 0,10 xg each so has 1 expected goal. Another team doesn't always shoots but passes the ball a lot in order to find a big chance (a big chance averages 030 to 0,40), so with 3 big chances has almost 1 expected too.


For the first team it's perfectly fine to score zero goals from 10 difficult shoots (low propability shoots), so this reminds us who constantly underperform our expected goals. The second team is perfectly fine to score 1 to 3 goals (teams usually score 1 goal per 3 big chances but because we speak about big chances a lot of times they score 2 from 3 or even 3 from 3) and overperform the xg. The second team could be City who usually overperform them.
To summarize good teams tend to create better quality chances that leads to overperform the xg.

02 Jan 2026 19:25:17
Can't we just all keep it simple and agree that xg is a load of over analysed bollocks that's contributing to sucking the fun out of football.

02 Jan 2026 20:18:44
A load of waffle.

02 Jan 2026 21:03:33
But it's not bollocks. It's no coincidence that the team that wins the Premier has the biggest expected goals difference 9 times out of 10. Metrics such as xg are very useful, but you must know to put some perspective.

02 Jan 2026 21:48:06
If only I was totally and woefully wrong. I am an MBB and can tell you that stats based on factual inputs are considered robust enough to make decisions on, not subjective inputs. The reason is subjective data can fall foul of personal opinion and manipulation.

You have teams with an xg of 0.3 who win games against teams with an xg of 2.5. That itself shows that it cannot be trusted as a reliable, robust and factual metric. Your list above even shows that. None align.

Yeah sure you can use it to show what “should” happen all things considered but you cannot use it to say we will win the league next year for example. All you can say is that we could win it if we perform to that expectation.

But that round thing in the oppositions netty thing, more often than they put it in our netty thing is the ONLY stat that is robust enough as a stat.

02 Jan 2026 23:14:23
Keefy what is it that makes you say the data used to calculate xG is not based on factual inputs. That is just a strange critique. And of course actual goals and xG don't align. Your post already tells me it is not at all likely that you work directly with data but I'll respond anyway since you've made some argument from authority to try push a point.

xG on a previous game allows for a retrospective analysis. It can be used to predict future games because it gives a better evaluation of prior games than goals scored alone.
Example though you gave (I'll pretend it's expected goals) . For 0.3 the prob to score at least one goal is 26%, while the 2.5 team has an 8% chance. This assumes Poisson which you should understand if you actually work with data. So that's a roughly 2% chance of it happening. That this corresponds to a one I'm fifty event does seem right to me. Honestly that is a seriously bad understanding of stochastic measurements.
That should be the lifeblood of what your company does!

As for using it to predict next year's performance. Yes we could, but only if the squad didn't change, and other squads also didn't. I spoke about expected goals not being the same as xG but that xG can converge to it quickly. This is very similar to ergodic theory results. Again you should understand that if your claim is true.

"All you can say is that we could win it if we perform to that expectation. " That is true of any retrospective statistic but extrapolating to say it can't be used to predict future performance is just bizarre and again reveals a really poor grasp of predictive modelling. Goals themselves can be used for that but are less reliable than xG or expected goals.

02 Jan 2026 23:18:58
Exactly Keefy. All you can say is that "we could win it if we perform to that expectation" as you say and that's the point. Sometimes improvement doesn't apply on pitch but metrics can see the improvement.
Now we have the example of Aston Villa. Villa scored 4 more goals than her expected and conceded almost 9 less than the expected against. Metrics show us that they are lucky to be third and our eyes says the same (i have seen 4-5 matches of them that won without being the better team) . Expected goals show you that usually if a team overperform or underperform there will be a correction and at the end of the year you will probably take the position you deserve.


I use the words "usually" and "probably" because its not sure you will take what you deserve, the season is not long enough to always make up for a bad run or a long time with injury crisis or simply bad luck and a long period of underperforming the metrics.
I can tell you that. If a year had 100 (the more the better for these metrics) i would comfortably say that we would finish at top 6.

02 Jan 2026 23:23:05
*8% chance that they won't score. That makes it around a 2% chance that the 0.3 xG team wins against the 2.5 xG team.

03 Jan 2026 05:03:17
I understand exactly what you are saying DonRed.

I am not here to argue statistics or data analysis with you. I don’t have the time or frankly the inclination. Clearly you are fully conversant and fully understand the intricacies of dealing with random data over a fixed period of time. Stochastic is probably more befitting of what XG is trying to achieve given the randomness of all aspects of the game.

Heaven says it well. It needs perspective and no self respecting person would hang their hat on it. WelI I wouldn’t use it to bet on the outcomes of a game, but then who said I was self respecting 😂

But ultimately, and this merely an opinion, I still think XG is generally garbage.

If we played the same team week in week out with the same players, same referee on the same pitch and at the same time then of course the randomness is reduced and the data becomes more robust.

As you said you cannot realistically use it to predict next years games unless the squad remains the same and similarly it is somewhat flawed in trying to predict next weeks games unless the, just less so.

03 Jan 2026 13:42:06
In no way you can predict next year's results, the circumstances are different. But with metrics you can see where the progression is, and you can see where a team can finish in ideal circumstances if the year was big enough to prevent anomaly and big enough to allow correction (in bad runs, injury crisis etc) .
With players you can analyze better their performances and I think that's how Liverpool used to do business. Liverpool used to buy players between the age of 24-26 so they can have 3 full year of data of each player in order to minimize fail.

That was the age of Virgil Salah Mane Alison. Speaking about Salah, who people underestimate at the time, in a specific metric that shaw us not only expected goals or expected assist, but the overall contribution, Salah was second in the whole Europe behind only Messi. We didn't know that, Liverpool did so they buyed him. We only could see his lack of goals, Liverpool knew that goals will come because metrics says. That's the strength of metrics.

28 Dec 2025 13:38:23
According to The Times, Ericksen has made some interesting comments around some of the things RA has said.

If you remember, RA called the team the 'worst team maybe in the history of Man United', which apparently did little for morale.

'That didn't help, ' Eriksen told the Times. 'Yeah, that didn't help at all. I mean, that was not… I don't think that helped the players at all.   Some stuff you can say inside and it's not too clever to say outside, to put extra pressure and put an extra label on the players who were already trying to do their best'

He also highlighted the pressure of playing for United expectations are so high, due to continual comparisons with the past.

He was complimentary about the club and his time there but it makes a change to get and opinion from a player instead of a bland soundbite. RA is perhaps too honest for his own good sometimes, I think he still overshares which will be niggling some players. Hopefully he will learn what to say publicly.

28 Dec 2025 16:41:17
His press conference can be very negative and detrimental on the players confidence. More so last season, than this one.

Sometimes you need to lie and make things sound better than they actually are.

28 Dec 2025 17:09:48
I might be in the minority ajh but the comments for me are yet another ex player having a dig and blaming the pressure of playing for man utd on them just not being good enough.

28 Dec 2025 17:45:43
I'm not sure we can look at Eriksen that way John, he's a complete professional who has been successful at the highest level, and he was complimentary about the club. He was asked a question and gave an honest answer.

28 Dec 2025 18:42:56
Were was he so successful? That's been the problem united players have not been able to handle the truth he got rid of the ones that couldn't and rightly so still a couple of entitled ones left they will go soon enough . We all wanted rid of the high earners not doing enough.

Ericksen was one of them. Nice guy good profit but under performing and under achieving. Good riddance to bad rubbish. He knows nothing of being a success at united. That's real pressure imo.

28 Dec 2025 19:05:32
You can't handle the truth!

Jeez, I get people want to defend the Manager but I think Eriksen gave a considered answer. If anyone thinks publicly describing the team as the worst United team ever was a sensible thing to do, them I'm lost for words.

We're making progress, RA is showing some flexibility and creativity, he's learning and adapting, pointing out he was careless with his comments is not treasonous.

28 Dec 2025 19:35:09
I don't consider them one bit careless. Bang on and accurate. How many of them in today best 11?

28 Dec 2025 19:37:47
I'm not saying ericksen is not being truthful about how he felt about it. In saying that those offended by it should be gone. If they could not recognise where they were then and be accountable for it then good riddance.

28 Dec 2025 19:56:50
Well we"ll have to disagree. You think it was the worst United team ever, I disagree. 🤷‍♂️.

28 Dec 2025 21:42:38
I think he is a lot more calculated than you give him credit for. He was in the process of sorting the weak mentality in the squad from the rest he got his answers and took his actions. Not finished yet.
Challenging players through the media can be tricky.

Fergie Jose and pep have been the masters imo.
Do you think its any coincidence that he challenged the academy players 2 weeks before he knew he would need them in the squad and possibly team?

31 Dec 2025 10:39:57
That is Eriksen's opinion, and like all opinions it is routed from ones own perspective.

He didn't like what the manager said publicly, and maybe he was one of those who struggled with the pressure that the managers comments put on him.

Ultimately diamonds are formed by pressure, and we need diamonds at our club.

Other players have handled his comments well and have managed to improve under him.

We are dealing with people, and people are fickle. What works with one person doesn't with another.

The manager himself has come out and been honest when discussing himself with the media. Saying that he has learned a lot during his first year at the club, and with hindsight that he would probably have done things differently. He isn't holding the players up to a standard above himself, he demands the same from himself, and he appreciates that he and his players will make mistakes but that they must learn from them and grow.

I still have full faith in this manager, I haven't really seen anything from him that I would call an obvious error or mistake. When you look at the context of the situation his decisions are always well thought out and justified, even the ones that don't turn out as we would hope.

We have to appreciate just how far our club have fallen away, just how much needs to be done to get us back to where we want to be, and the reality of how long that will take.

Progress isn't linear, sometimes it's two steps forward and one step back. But that back step gives you a chance to look at the bigger picture, we're those two forward steps in the right direction or were we walking down a cul de sac.

The most successful people learn from their mistakes, but to do that they have to be given the freedom to make those mistakes in the first place, and the time to learn from them and move forward.

Ultimately there are probably dozens of things the manager in hindsight would have done differently. But there is actually no guarantees that if he'd done them differently that things would have turned out better. Different certainly, but not necessarily better. That's the problem with hindsight, it tricks you into a false belief that if you just did this or that then you'd have gotten the outcome you wanted. When all you really did was found one of the million ways to fail at your target, changing how you failed might mean finding a successful way to achieve it, or just another of the million ways to fail.

23 Dec 2025 11:05:06
I'm interested to see if Amorim gives Martinez more games in midfield over the next few games.

We are light of midfield options at the best of times, but with Bruno out for a while, and Mainoo having a mysterious injury just after his brother stirred the pot, that leaves us with just Casemiro once he's back from suspension and Ugarte as genuine midfield options. While we could also drop Mount into midfield if needed.

I've been dismissive of playing Martinez in midfield, I think he lacks a little in mobility which is why he was dropped back into defence while playing in the Netherlands. It also gives him a little more time to get his head up and pick his passes. He won't get that same amount of time and space in midfield, especially in the EPL.

Yet against Villa he was promising, good at times and not particularly exposed or caught out. Which given he is still coming back from injury and won't be fully match sharp yet was another positive to take out of the game.

Long term I don't think he's a great fit for Amorim's midfield which tends to need to be pretty physical and athletic to enable them to cover the ground and fill in the gaps that enables the wingbacks and forwards to rotate and play higher up the pitch.

However, in the short term he is positionally disciplined and understands how to read the game well from a defensive point of view. He knows when to dive in and when to hold his ground. He should be good at picking up midfield runners (which has been our Achilles heel this season) .

Ugarte has struggled as he is a mad dog midfielder, he runs around like a dog chasing a carrier bag in the wind. Which is great in a 3 man midfield as you have two others to cover the spaces he leaves behind, but in a 2 man midfield it often leads the other midfielder with far too much space to cover. Bruno Fernandes has the same issue, his desire to press and win the ball back means he often jumps when he should hold his position. If he wins it then problem solved, but when he doesn't it leaves big gaps centrally to be attacked.

Amorim has tried to counter that issue this season by asking MdL to push higher into midfield alongside Casemiro to make sure we still have that duo to cover the space, or by inverting Dalot more centrally to cover that space. However, both "solutions" also create new problems either by asking the two remaining CB's to cover half the pitch each defensively, or by opening up space to attack down the flank when Dalot has tucked in. That tends to pull the CB on that side out wide and means one of the midfield players needs to drop in, which leaves the space in front of our defence for an opposing midfield runner and with no one to track them.

Our midfield shape keeps getting exposed because our midfielders have a tendency to chase the ball and to step out of midfield to try and press without consideration for the space they leave behind. Even Casemiro has more of a tendency to step out, although he does it less often unless he knows there is cover behind him.

Maybe Martinez could provide that balance we have been missing, a player who can both win the ball back and distribute it effectively, but understands team shape and when to step out and when to hold his position.

It certainly wouldn't hurt to try him there for a couple of games while we are so short of options. At the very least it'll give us a better idea of how this system should work when you have the right profile of players in the right positions.

Interesting to see what the manager does over the next few games.

27 Dec 2025 06:27:51
Strangely, Ugarte, overall, did well against Newcastle after a typical start with bad touches etc. he kind of grew into the game.

27 Dec 2025 23:52:49
I hope he never plays in midfield because if he does we will be desperate like we were against villa.
He can step in to do a job if we are shorthanded but won't play there when we have midfielders available i suspect.

21 Dec 2025 20:34:02
May I just take the opportunity to wish all the Ed’s and the posters on the site a very merry Christmas and a happy 2026. Wherever you are and however u celebrate the season I hope you have a peaceful, joyful and safe holiday time.

22 Dec 2025 13:42:35
Many happy returns Tim.

22 Dec 2025 19:35:08
Same to you Ken. Have a great one! 🥳👍.

23 Dec 2025 05:40:08
Yep! Have a great one everybody. I’ll be sat IN the pool, beer in hand with the Turkey on the BBQ!

17 Dec 2025 05:24:33
We are almost at the half way stage of the season, 26 points from 16 games, lying 6th in the table, joint second highest scorers, but shocking in defence at times.

So is the season panning out as we expected, should we be doing better, or is some of the progress we have seen enough at this stage?

17 Dec 2025 12:26:14
I would say, yes, as far as the number of goals we're scoring which I predicted would be much higher with proven EPL goal scorers like Cunha and Mbuemo coming into the squad. The defense is shakier than I expected but we've had injuries to de Ligt and Maguire which is leaving a very young group to succeed behind an unreinforced midfield. I had hoped Ugarte would step up, but he's clearly not suited.

Mainoo is still struggling but maybe gets his chance against Villa with Cas suspended. However, in this set up, partnering Bruno, I think we'll get beaten comfortably. So, from a defensive point of view we're worse than I expected. But we all knew that midfield was going to be a problem. it's not a surprise that we're struggling.

17 Dec 2025 18:48:48
Grim a little frustrated.
I can think of a few games West ham Everton Bournemouth at home and Fulham away in particular where we have thrown points away.
Its very fine margins when you consider that 3 more points would see is 4th.
Our squad is just not good enough or deep enough and unbalanced but i think we all knew it would take a few windows so expectations have to be realistic.

Hopes never have to be realistic.
We have improved our attacking play but due to lack of particular skill sets in our midfield options our improved attacking output is being undermined by bad defencive play particularly vrunners from midfield and consequently our defenders get pulled all over the place.
We've brought in pace and better technical ability in attack we need to do the same in midfield.

18 Dec 2025 18:23:19
I think we have progressed, but I'm also conscious that most teams have been very inconsistent. The Liverpool game was the highlight for me.

We're scoring a lot more, which is great, but we have rarely looked convincing. Cunha and Mbuemo look ike very good buys and Sesko clearly has potential.

Lack of energy and urgency has been an issue as has conceding some silly goals, ut myngib concern has been RA's obsession with his formation. Against Grimsby and 10 man Everton we stayed with the same formation when some balls and creativity were required. Only in the last game did we seem to change it up a little, hopefully a sign of some flexibility.

We are also more resilient, we don't panic when we concede and have weathered some storms in games and come through them.

I remain unconvinced by RA but we have made progress so fair play, let's hope it can continue.

19 Dec 2025 07:23:15
Ajh how many teams that play 433 change their shape when losing?

19 Dec 2025 08:43:46
At home, against 10 men, or away against a League 2 team, most Managers would have shaken it up. Look, I see progress, but he is wedded to a formation, whatever the circumstances. He's young, maybe he will evolve.

19 Dec 2025 09:56:44
He did shake it up just didn't work. Its not like he didn't make changes. You didn't like his changes and they didn't work on the night so it gives everybody a reason to know better in hindsight.

20 Dec 2025 15:37:14
Yeah RA is great at changing like for like, let’s take of 3 defenders every game and replace them with oh wait 3 defenders! RA is far too robotic and stubborn for his own good, very naive and in game management is a disaster.

21 Dec 2025 12:13:45
Overall I'd say it's going pretty much as I expected it to. I think we have slightly benefitted from an overall slight downturn from the majority of sides that finished in the top half last season.

That's lead to a very compacted mid-table up to 3rd place, where a single weekend of results going your way could see you jump from 7th or 8th up to 4th place potentially.

The key this season looks to be consistency, the teams that can smooth out the peaks and troughs will be the ones to get UCL football. They might not play the most entertaining or dominant football, but they will also not lose when they play poorly.

I think the majority of fans are easily caught up in the excitement, bravado, and media chatter at the end of the transfer window.

Look at Liverpool fans this summer, they're club did a madness this summer, and the fans and many others thought they'd walk the league after winning it last time and spending a record 446m over the summer signing some top players in the process.

Yet as the season has panned out it's becoming clear that signing that number of big signings has upset the apple cart, while they clearly haven't signed players in other key positions of need. Did they for example need to spend the 125m to sign Isak while Ekitike was doing so well having just signed for them? Or would that money have been better spent on a CB or a defensive midfielder? Was Frimpong the right profile of player to replace TAA? Was signing Wirtz the right thing to do while Salah was given a new deal and was obviously going to be the main man still?

Spending huge sums of money, even on what on paper looks like good signings doesn't always pan out the way you hope or expect. I do think if Liverpool ride this out end make the right moves going forward then in time most of this summer's deals will look like good business when looking back. The problem seems to be that many of their signings look far better suited to a 343 team shape, Wirtz, Isak and Ekitike would all benefit from it, as would both Frimpong and Kerkez. The issue seems to be that they don't have enough CB's to play with a back three, and they lack a true defensive midfielder to shield the back four.

If they have a player like Caicedo to play alongside any of Gravenberch, Mac Alister, or Szboszalai in midfield, along with someone like Schlotterbeck along with Guehi. Then suddenly that team looks really well balanced and could be a real force. Obviously Caicedo isn't going to be available, but Baleba would be the next best signing for them. He has everything to be as good as Caicedo.

But this is the point, the spending has to be on the right players and work with what you have and are trying to build on.

Like Liverpool with Salah this summer I think we made a mistake not moving on Bruno. Both clubs should have sold their best player and reinvested that money to help the team transition towards the next team it's trying to become. Both players are too good to bench without a backlash, but both will hold back the current side when they play.

Looking at us this summer it was clear we needed a full rebuild. Now I know some people will say "what again? " But I'd argue that we haven't ever committed to a full rebuild, we've spent big on sticking plasters to try and cheat our way back into challenging for titles. But a true rebuild means knocking down what currently exists. It means shipping out players, and not just the obvious ones who haven't made it with us, but the ones who have been successful but aren't part of the long term future.

We did a good job this summer, I'm pleased with all the business we did. If I was being greedy selling Bruno and bringing in Baleba would have moved us further along in this rebuild. But I understand why the club were reluctant to sever ties with our best player, the main source of our goals and chances creation. Especially when the club also moved on Garnacho and our goal scoring and chance creation would have largely fallen on the three new forward signings, none of which were guaranteed to work out.

However, despite the good moves in our forward line there was still much work to be done. The defence needs an overhaul, we have some quality there, but we lack depth and the profiles of the players isn't ideal for the style of play we want to use. Yoro and Heaven look like good long term options, but lack experience and consistency. MdL looks like the only top level long term option. Shaw, Martinez, Maguire and Mazraoui all offer some quality, but none are long term options either due to age, injury, or simply because they aren't the right profile of player we need.

In midfield we need a total rebuild, at least two most likely three new players needed. Casemiro is the best of the bunch, but is in decline and still isn't the ideal profile of player. Bruno is a square peg in a round hole, forced in because he's too good not to have in the team and is still the best option in the squad alongside Casemiro even with his flaws in this position. Ugarte just hasn't adapted to the EPL, and Mainoo could grow into the role, but he seems to lack the patience required. He needs to look at Amad as the example, he moved here as a 19 year old, didn't get his chances right away, had to go on two loan spells and sit on the bench and watch a much worse player in Antony get games ahead of him. Yet he kept his head down, worked hard in training to improve what he needed to develop with his game and he is now reaping the rewards. He is still only just turned 23, three years Mainoo's senior, yet still considered a young player. Mainoo's lack of patience will be his undoing at United and instead of us signing two new players to replace Bruno, Casemiro and Ugarte this summer it looks like we will need 3 new midfielders as Mainoo will also join the list of those leaving.

Finally there is debate about our wingbacks, Amad has nailed down the role in the right, but Dorgu still has some developing to do on the left. Although we do have both Amass and Leon as young options coming through, there is an arguement that we could do with another senior player who is top tier right now to give us balance and give the younger lads time and space to develop out of the spotlight.

So to expect more from the team than we are seeing when it's clear we still need a total rebuild in midfield and at CB, with at least 4 maybe 5 new signings needed in those areas as well as a top level wingback, would be foolish to the extreme.

We are doing well and on course, but there is a still a lot of work to do, and a lot of growth and development needed with this squad. They need the two things the vast majority of fans are unable or unwilling to give them, time and patience.

10 Dec 2025 00:34:14
Just to stir the pot, I see that so far this season Mason Greenwood has scored 13 times and provided 5 assists for Marseille in Ligue 1 and ECL. and he also has a 2nd child with the same woman. Disgraceful behavior on his part - no one's going to argue against that point - but I'm glad that he was given and has seized his second chance to redeem himself, both with regard to his football career and his personal life.

Pity it couldn't have been at United. The whole episode was symptomatic of the sickness at OT in the post SAF era.

10 Dec 2025 07:59:37
Best player to come out of the academy in a long time but clear he will never play for the club and probably never play in the premier league again.

I can see him definitely moving to a barca, madrid or psg sooner than later.

10 Dec 2025 09:15:27
What tripe, tardy time keeping and lowering standards is not the same as what Greenwood was accused of.

For the love of God, can we stop talking about him, he's gone, history, not for us, and rightly so.

10 Dec 2025 17:20:17
Top class player should never have been bombed out of the club imo. But he won't be coming back sadly so we need to move on.

13 Dec 2025 19:52:41
Agreed Ken. The club's handling of MG was the worst thing they have accomplished in the last 30 years.

That type of talent does not come around very often, yet we threw it all away because a pretty looking genius said she wouldn't support the club if MG stayed at the club. Outrageous!

I can forgive the club for the billions of wasted funds, poorly appointed managers/scouts/backroom staff/directors, ludicrous wages for over the hill players starving the club of future transfer warchests etc etc etc, but I will never forgive them for letting MG go.

Absolutely pathetic from all involved, from the fans all the way to the top that were involved in him leaving.

13 Dec 2025 21:59:27
I have read some drivel in my time but that it right up there with the best of it.

15 Dec 2025 18:08:34
I wouldn't go that far myself Jimbob.
I m of the opinion the whole situation could and imo should have been handled very differently.
But what's done is done and i hope he has a good career and life. I wish the same for rashford in particular as I did for the likes of stam and becks and loads of others.
What spoils it now for me when players leave is the social media driven nonsense that's drives wedges between ex players with their ex club and fans. That, along with players are more arrogant and stupid and post a pic or quote and it goes viral.


When watching cl this season i'm always up for whichever team has ex united players. I like seeing them do well.
Although I have to say garnacho is a bit of an exception he has been a little bit disrespectful imo so I don't have any loyalty to him and there would be a couple more like that.
Managers much the same. I like moyes, Carrick mckenna and Jose ole not do much I did hope eth would do ok at leverkusen but they realised he was the wrong one very quickly. Hope he turns up again somewhere.

16 Dec 2025 16:53:32
I think we all know Greenwood’s character if you listened to the audio leak. He’s a scumbag.

However he is still with the woman he spoke so disrespectfully to. Charges were dropped and they’ve seemingly moved on and started a family.

The club handled the whole situation terribly and SAF would have made sure this never happened to such talent. Not out of morals but out of a will to win.

All in all I think his alleged victim has moved on and married him, who are we to undermine them. I’m not supportive of him signing and we don’t need him but if we did I’d just think he’s a scumbag and move on with my life.

25 Nov 2025 07:22:40
What is found concerning last night was RA reluctance to change formation to a more attacking one. It was Southgate esque football last night.

1-0 down, at OT and we played into Evertons hands. The extra man was never utilised. It really showed that RA doesn't have a plan B or C.

I really can't see Utd getting a result at Palace on Sunday.

The joys of supporting Utd!

25 Nov 2025 10:29:46
The good news is that Palace play away in Europe on Thursday. If we manage to have less energy than them I think it’s time to move Amorim on.

25 Nov 2025 11:16:02
GSD2,

I think December will become a critical month for RA. He is clearly obstinate. His tactics cost Utd last night.

I don't think we could actually find a fan who would defend RA tactics last night. They were woefully wrong.

25 Nov 2025 20:11:11
Totally agree. Let’s not sugar coat it. Last night was dreadful.

26 Nov 2025 22:18:16
I'm still surprised by the pure lack of tactical understanding by most casual fans.

To be fair it doesn't help when the commentators and pundits are so clueless.

They keep saying 343 is a defensive shape/style, yet they clearly can't count.

343 is a shape that has THREE defenders, four midfielders and three forwards.

442/4231/433 is a shape that has FOUR defenders.

Now I might not be the sharpest tool in the box, but even I can understand that four is a bigger number than three.

So exactly how does playing one LESS defender make a team more defensive.

27 Nov 2025 05:58:17
Got nothing to do with initial numbers. Typically 343 is more defensive because the two wingbacks drop back (or should! ) to form a 5 man defence in defensive phase.

This has its own issues in that it depends entirely on the wingbacks dropping back with discipline.

Similarly they need to advance quickly in their own attacking phase as it could potentially leave the midfield low on numbers.

27 Nov 2025 06:40:52
Keefy, there is no typically about it. Every team regardless of formation does things differently.

There is no set way of playing a formation.

When we play 343 it works fine when we have the right players to do what the manager wants, i. e. Amad playing in the wingback role meaning we have a wingback whose natural tendency is to attack.

We struggle more when either Dalot or Mazraoui play as their natural instincts are to stay deeper and defend. Which pulls our team out of shape and makes things difficult for us.

Every team regardless of team shape/formation will look to make sure they have a man advantage both when defending and ideally when attacking. In that regard football is just a numbers game.

But there is nothing inherently defensive about the 343 shape despite the dumbass pundits insistence there is.

27 Nov 2025 09:50:18
Isn’t that what I said?

Typically - usually or normally, not exclusively.

Teams (not all) will use the 343 formation with the right cattle on the park to provide a better defensive structure with the ability to transition to an offensive structure. Of course there will be exceptions and team execute it differently.

Either way thanks for essentially agreeing!

Thanks also for pointing out that football is a numbers game. 40 years of playing and coaching and I never knew that! See you can teach an old dog new tricks!

20 Nov 2025 19:40:41
Leadership
On here when SAF retired and many times since I have talked about Leadership and how it is different to management. I read this and hope the Eds are ok with posting it, it isn’t my work. However, it outlines the importance of Leadership so very well.

Patrice Evra’s recollections suggest that David Moyes’ failure at Manchester United was rooted in a rapid loss of authority. The issues began in pre-season when Moyes disregarded security advice to hold a session at Bondi Beach, resulting in a mob scene that undermined his judgment early on.

However, the core issue was a shift in leadership style. Unlike Ferguson’s autocratic control, Moyes attempted a more democratic approach that backfired. By asking the players to teach him how to win trophies, he inadvertently signaled incompetence to a squad used to definitive leadership. This led to a breakdown in discipline, characterized by media leaks (such as the infamous chips ban) and insubordination from fringe players.

The situation deteriorated as results worsened. Evra notes that Moyes seemed unable to handle the intense internal standards of the club, expressing shock at aggressive confrontations between senior players like Vidić and Evra. By the time the team suffered a defeat to Olympiacos, the dressing room had checked out, evidenced by their relaxed demeanor on the return flight.

The end became inevitable following a defeat at Goodison Park. Ryan Giggs reportedly lost his temper at the humiliation of being mocked by Everton fans. Recognizing the broken relationship, Ed Woodward consulted the senior players. Their feedback sealed Moyes' fate, and he was sacked shortly thereafter, with Evra noting he was the only player to bid him farewell.

Now me, consider what Amorim walked into. It’s taken a few months, moaning fans, moaning players, yet Amorim has not flinched, jettisoned those who would not adapt. Yes he was inflexible, at first but was that stamping his authority? I suspect so, see above. He has tweaked recently but from a different position, it would not be seen as being done because anyone else wanted it. Players know what Amorim wants, he is not asking them how to do it, he is telling them. Authority.

That is leadership.

{Ed001's Note - who wrote this?}

20 Nov 2025 20:08:39
Hi Ed,
Read it online and it was said to come from Evras autobiography.

20 Nov 2025 20:24:29
I wrote the bit about Amorim from Now me,

{Ed001's Note - ok thanks, should always try and credit the writer please.}

20 Nov 2025 21:37:23
Sorry Ed, various quotes online with similar stuff but can’t find the actual source.

{Ed001's Note - ok, no worries.}

20 Nov 2025 19:08:11
Noooooooooo!

Mani. RIP PAL!


Legend of two legendary bands. Devastated To say the least.

20 Nov 2025 19:34:47
The Stone Roses were and still are my favourite ever band, and Mani was the beating heart of it.

When the bass kicks in at the start of I want to Be Adored. Goosebumps ❤️

Genuinely gutted. RIP, Mani. 😔.

17 Nov 2025 14:05:40
I know the topic of Mason Greenwood sets a lot of people off, and I get why. The off-field situation was serious and it changed everything. This isn’t a post defending that. But purely from a footballing perspective, it’s impossible to ignore what the lad is doing over in France.
I was chatting with a lifelong Marseille fan recently, and honestly, they talk about Greenwood like he’s their superstar. And when you look at the numbers, it’s hard to argue with them.
Since joining Marseille:
• 45 games • 29 goals • 8 assists — that’s 0.64 goal contributions per game
• 2024/25 Ligue 1: 21 goals, 5 assists
• 2025/26 so far: 8 goals, 3 assists in 11 games
• Regularly posting 7+ match ratings and even bagged four goals in a single Ligue 1 match this season
• Marseille fans absolutely adore him — they see him as the face of their attack
Meanwhile, we’ve spent £200m+ trying to fix our forward line, and half of those signings haven’t come close to delivering numbers like that.


Again — I’m not saying United should have kept him, I’m not dismissing what happened, and I’m not asking anyone to change how they feel about him. But it’s also fair to admit the football reality:
If things had turned out differently, Greenwood would be absolutely untouchable at Manchester United right now.
He had the talent, the finishing ability, the two-footed threat, the academy pathway — everything. And seeing him hitting these levels in France, while our attack still struggles for consistency, is a hard pill to swallow.
This isn’t meant to glorify him or start an argument — it’s just acknowledging a “what if” that a lot of us secretly feel:
We lost a player who had the potential to be one of the best forwards in Europe.

17 Nov 2025 18:35:24
What if we signed Harry Kane!
What if we signed Halaand

All what ifs and no real substance so all pointless really

What if we bought a proper striker decent defenders a manager who got some decent in game management

I for one happy that Greenwood don’t play for united, whatever his stats.

17 Nov 2025 23:13:52
Maze, well done for proving you didn’t read all of the post.

Interesting one Red Devil, such a shame for the club and for him that his actions off the field meant he’s never going to be remembered for the wonderful football ability he has. Best player to come through our academy for a very long time but unfortunately a horrible person.

18 Nov 2025 22:07:27
If you are successful and lucky you'll be remembered for your talent.

However, a great many talented people are remembered for their actions/comments.

I don't know what happened to make Greenwood the horrible little worm that he is, but he will be remembered for his actions off the pitch, no matter what he does on it.